Showing posts with label World Latesst News. Show all posts
Showing posts with label World Latesst News. Show all posts

Sunday, June 26, 2011

Indian mobile handset mkt grows by 15% in FY11

The Indian mobile handset market grew by 15 per cent to a whopping Rs 33,171 crore in 2010-11, with Nokia and Samsung emerging as top revenue earners, says a report.

According to an annual study by telecom industry journal Voice&Data, revenues of the Indian mobile handset market increased to Rs 33,171 crore in 2010-11 from Rs 28,897 crore an year ago.

Nokia retained the numero uno position in handset business with revenue of Rs 12,929 crore showing a growth of 0.2 per cent over Rs 12,900 crore it registered in FY 2009-10.

The Finnish firm has registered a flat growth as it lost market share in low-end segments to home grown handset makers such as Micromax, Karbonn and Spice whereas it's high-end phones faced a tough competition from brands like Samsung, BlackBerry and HTC.

"Nokia's loss market share due to lack of dual-SIM phones in its portfolio. Dual-SIM phones have become an increasing phenomenon among value conscious Indian consumers. For FY2010-11, Nokia enjoys a market share of 39 per cent," an analyst at Voice&Data said.

Nokia was followed by Samsung with an impressive 22 per cent rise in revenue to 5,720 crore. It has registered a market share of 17.2 per cent.

Samsung's success can be attributed to its rich product portfolio on various popular operating systems like Windows, Android and Bada. The company's entry level smartphone 'Wave' and 'Galaxy S' have been hugely successful during the period.

Micromax captured third slot with a revenue of Rs 2,289 crore in 2010-11, a 43 per cent jump from year-earlier. It has grabbed a market share of 6.9 per cent.

Canadian firm Research in Motion's brand BlackBerry and LG scored the fourth and fifth position with a revenue of Rs 1,950 crore and Rs 1,210 crore, respectively.

In terms of market share, BlackBerry has 5.9 per cent shares, while LG, has a market share of 5.5 per cent.

Interestingly, G' Five , which has market shares of four per cent, witnessed highest growth of 75.6 per cent in revenue. While, Spice has seen a 11.5 per cent decline in revenue.

Other top 10 handset players include G'Five with a revenue of (Rs 1,326 crore) Karbonn ( Rs 1,004 crore), Spice (Rs 920 crore), Maxx (Rs 745 crore) and Sony Ericsson (Rs 690 crore).

Most other Indian brands including Lava, Intex and Zen have shown almost a flat growth.

The price conscious Indian consumers could benefit in the current fiscal as domestic handset players like Maxx, Karbonn and Micromax roll out made in India handsets from their own manufacturing plants.

The 'Voice&Data 100' covered all the mobile handset companies doing business in India across categories like feature phones, multimedia phones, enterprise phones and smartphones.

Job Jugglers, on the Tightrope

WHEN someone asks Roger Fierro “What do you do?” — which he knows is shorthand for “Where do you work?” — he laughs. Then he says, “I do everything.”

Mr. Fierro, who is 26, has four jobs: working as a bilingual-curriculum specialist for the textbook publisher Pearson; handling estate sales and online marketing for a store that sells vintage items; setting up an online store for a custom piñata maker; and developing reality-show ideas for a production company. So far this month, he’s made about $1,800.

Whereas most 9-to-5ers have some kind of structure in their lives, each workday can be wildly different for him. On a recent day, he worked on and off from 7 a.m. to midnight, making business calls, working on the piñata store’s Web site and visiting the vintage store, among other things. (To maintain his sanity, he made sure to schedule some “me” time from 2 to 4 and 6 to 8.)

“I have eight million things going on,” said Mr. Fierro, who lives in the West Town area of Chicago. “It’s exhausting. Sometimes I just want to take a nap.”

Some portions of the population — especially young, creative types like actors, artists and musicians — have always held multiple jobs to pay the bills. But people from all kinds of fields are now drawing income from several streams. Mr. Fierro, for one, has a degree in international studies and Latin American studies at the University of Chicago.

Some of these workers are patching together jobs out of choice. They may find full-time office work unfulfilling and are testing to see whether they can be their own boss. Certainly, the Internet has made working from home and trying out new businesses easier than ever.

But in many cases, necessity is driving the trend. “Young college graduates working multiple jobs is a natural consequence of a bad labor market and having, on average, $20,000 worth of student loans to pay off,” said Carl E. Van Horn, director of the John J. Heldrich Center for Workforce Development at Rutgers.

“There are two types of people in this position: the graduate who can’t get a full-time job, and the person whose income isn’t sufficient to meet their expenses,” he said. “The only cure for young people in this position is an economic recovery of robust proportions.”

An entry-level salary often doesn’t go very far these days. According to a study by the Heldrich Center, the median starting salary for those who graduated from four-year degree programs in 2009 and 2010 was $27,000, down from $30,000 for those who graduated in 2006 to 2008, before the recession. (Try living on $27,000 a year — before taxes — in a city like New York, Washington or Chicago.)

Many earn even less than $27,000. Maureen McCarty, 23, who graduated from American University in 2010 with a journalism degree, makes $25,000 before taxes as managing editor of TheNewGay.net, a blog focusing on gay issues, with no benefits like health insurance or a 401(k). The salary doesn’t cover her expenses, so she often baby-sits five nights a week for six families in the Washington area.

Without the baby-sitting jobs, she says, she couldn’t afford to live in Adams Morgan, a hip neighborhood in Washington, or take a vacation: “I’m working in online publishing, an industry that is struggling to monetize, so if I want to do anything fun, like take a trip to New Orleans, I have to have additional income.”

Juggling jobs has its perils. “I do sometimes get my schedules mixed up and will double- or even triple-book myself,” Ms. McCarty said. Maintaining a social life can be challenging, and it might consist of “dragging a friend along while I run errands on a Saturday.”

“Sometimes I do get burnt out from all of the juggling, but caffeine, for the most part, keeps me going,” she said. “I try when I get to that point to take some time by myself even if it’s just 30 minutes during lunch.”

All told, Ms. McCarty says, she works 75 to 80 hours a week, a schedule more typical of investment bankers or lawyers aspiring to make partner in a firm — but for just a fraction of the pay.

Between her salary at TheNewGay.net and the $5,000 she makes at her various baby-sitting jobs, Ms. McCarty has a pre-tax income of $30,000, or about $2,500 a month. More than $700 a month goes to the apartment she shares with two roommates.

Some months, however, when she doesn’t have enough baby-sitting jobs lined up, Ms. McCarty has to make that “horrible phone call” to her parents to tell them that she can’t make her rent.

LOUISE GASSMAN, 28, has a rotating schedule of multiple jobs: as an actress; as an assistant to dance instructors at the Circle in the Square and Juilliard schools; as a baby-sitter; and in a variety of administrative roles and as a spinning instructor at SoulCycle, an indoor cycling studio in New York.

Ms. Gassman’s monthly income, which can vary greatly depending on whether she books an acting job, ranges from $1,800 to $4,000. Some months, almost all of her income goes to the $1,450 rent on her 290-square-foot studio on the Upper West Side of Manhattan. Whatever is left after essentials goes toward paying off her remaining $16,000 in college loans.

“I worry about money all the time,” Ms. Gassman said. “I live on a really tight budget, and I live paycheck to paycheck.”

Periodically, the accountant who cuts her check at SoulCycle reminds her that someone her age should be putting away $300 a paycheck for retirement, an amount that is sometimes almost half of her pay. “I’m like, retirement?” she asks. “Then I have the ‘Oh my God, Oh my God’ feelings.”

Ms. Gassman has come up with creative ways to save money. She has a policy not to spend $5 bills and instead puts them in a Tupperware container. So far, she’s been able to use this cash to pay for a new air-conditioner, for three plane tickets, and for her dog to be neutered.

Mia Branco, 23, says she is always worried about money, even though she also works four jobs. She is the house manager at the Discovery Theater at the Smithsonian Institute in Washington, teaches drama and music at Imagination Stage in Bethesda, Md., supervises the box office at the Woolly Mammoth Theater Company and works as a nanny.

Ms. Branco says she logs 40 to 50 hours a week, including travel time, and takes home $1,300 in a good month.

Still, Ms. Branco, who graduated magna cum laude with a degree in musical theater from American University in 2009, says she feels lucky to be employed at all. “The majority of the jobs I have right now are because people were laid off and they didn’t want to hire back full-time employees,” she said. “My willingness to have a hodgepodge schedule makes me more marketable.”

But very few part-time employers offer health insurance, and job jugglers tend to worry: What happens if I become really sick or get into an accident?

At least Ms. McCarty is covered through her parents under the new health care law that allows anyone under 26 to stay on their parents’ insurance.

Mr. Fierro still receives insurance from a teaching job he used to have, but it runs out in August. He doesn’t know what he’ll do after that.

Ms. Branco pays $89 a month for very basic health insurance that has a high deductible, the kind of plan that she says makes her “bank on not getting sick.”

Ms. Gassman, who does not have health insurance and hasn’t had a physical since 2004, says she is extra careful when crossing the street because anything medically catastrophic is simply not an option right now. “I can’t afford to get hit by a taxi,” she said.

ON the brighter side, when or if these job jugglers get on a career path, they may offer an attractive skill set: they are expert multitaskers, hyper-organized and often very knowledgeable in technology. Having multiple jobs is an exercise in mental dexterity.

Ms. Branco says that because of her four jobs, which require skills as diverse as developing lesson plans and mastering an online ticketing system, she has become more adept at dealing with a wide range of people and situations: “I’ve learned to be very adaptable, because one day I’m corporate, the next day I’m start-up, and the next day I’m nonprofit.”

Mr. Fierro describes himself as “MacGyver.” He might have to transport some furniture, “read and synthesize documents, find obscure bits of information on Google and give presentations in Spanish, all in one day,” he says.

But beware: Too much multitasking makes it harder to sustain attention, according to Kirk Snyder, an assistant professor of communications at the Marshall School of Business at the University of Southern California, who researches the changing workplace values of Gen Y.

“I think being focused on more than one professional pursuit at the same time makes it easier to give up on those pursuits that take more effort or have a longer payoff curve because there are always other options to focus on,” he said.

More damaging, however, may be the economics. A national study by the Johns Hopkins Institute for Policy Studies found that young women who worked primarily in part-time jobs did not make higher wages in their 30s than in their 20s.

“The study was clear. Women don’t benefit wage-wise from working part time,” said Andrew Sum, director of the Center for Labor Market Studies at Northeastern University and a co-author of the study. The reason is that part-time jobs generally provide fewer training opportunities and often don’t put workers on a track for advancement.

More college graduates are working in second jobs that don’t require college degrees, part of a phenomenon called “mal-employment.” In short, many baby-sitters, sales clerks, telemarketers and bartenders are overqualified for their jobs.

Last year, 1.9 million college graduates were mal-employed and had multiple jobs, up 17 percent from 2007, according to federal data. Almost half of all college graduates have a job that doesn’t require a bachelor’s degree.

The goal for most, Mr. Sum said, is to be upgraded to full-time jobs. “That is where there is the most payoff for a college degree,” he said.

But full-time jobs don’t suit everyone. Ms. Gassman, for example, has been offered a full-time job at SoulCycle, complete with full benefits, but she doesn’t want it. “I wouldn’t be able to go on auditions in the middle of the day,” she explained. “Of course, it stresses me out not to have health insurance, but what is my choice? Work in an office and be unhappy? Being happy is a superhigh value to me.”

Mr. Fierro is much happier now than when he was working as a bilingual reading specialist for a public school in Chicago. “I was working 12 hours a day and making $38,000 a year and it wasn’t making a dent in the $120,000 in loans I had to pay off. Plus, I was miserable.”

Mr. Fierro, who calls himself an “aesthetic consultant,” would ultimately like to create his own line of merchandise, along the lines of Marc Jacobs. He is optimistic that he is more likely to achieve his goal by working on many projects than if he held a traditional job.

Ms. Branco says that while she is often exhausted and hasn’t had two consecutive days off in months, she isn’t ready to commit to one employer. “The jobs are allowing me to wander and figure out what I really want to do,” she said.

Professor Snyder at Southern Cal doesn’t see multiple job-holding as a trend that will disappear anytime soon.

“The likelihood of this generation devoting their professional life to just one job or career at the same time is simply counterintuitive to their worldview,” he said. “I think we would be seeing this generation pursuing multiple jobs and careers at once even in a robust economy.”

Still, is job-juggling really sustainable, particularly when the next stage of life hits and there may be a mortgage and children?

Ms. McCarty doesn’t think so. She is looking for an end to her 80-hour weeks and meager paychecks. “I don’t want to be 30 and working a bunch of small jobs so I can pay my bills,” she said.

Insiders Sound an Alarm Amid a Natural Gas Rush

Natural gas companies have been placing enormous bets on the wells they are drilling, saying they will deliver big profits and provide a vast new source of energy for the United States.

But the gas may not be as easy and cheap to extract from shale formations deep underground as the companies are saying, according to hundreds of industry e-mails and internal documents and an analysis of data from thousands of wells.

In the e-mails, energy executives, industry lawyers, state geologists and market analysts voice skepticism about lofty forecasts and question whether companies are intentionally, and even illegally, overstating the productivity of their wells and the size of their reserves. Many of these e-mails also suggest a view that is in stark contrast to more bullish public comments made by the industry, in much the same way that insiders have raised doubts about previous financial bubbles.

“Money is pouring in” from investors even though shale gas is “inherently unprofitable,” an analyst from PNC Wealth Management, an investment company, wrote to a contractor in a February e-mail. “Reminds you of dot-coms.”

“The word in the world of independents is that the shale plays are just giant Ponzi schemes and the economics just do not work,” an analyst from IHS Drilling Data, an energy research company, wrote in an e-mail on Aug. 28, 2009.

Company data for more than 10,000 wells in three major shale gas formations raise further questions about the industry’s prospects. There is undoubtedly a vast amount of gas in the formations. The question remains how affordably it can be extracted.

The data show that while there are some very active wells, they are often surrounded by vast zones of less-productive wells that in some cases cost more to drill and operate than the gas they produce is worth. Also, the amount of gas produced by many of the successful wells is falling much faster than initially predicted by energy companies, making it more difficult for them to turn a profit over the long run.

If the industry does not live up to expectations, the impact will be felt widely. Federal and state lawmakers are considering drastically increasing subsidies for the natural gas business in the hope that it will provide low-cost energy for decades to come.

But if natural gas ultimately proves more expensive to extract from the ground than has been predicted, landowners, investors and lenders could see their investments falter, while consumers will pay a price in higher electricity and home heating bills.

There are implications for the environment, too. The technology used to get gas flowing out of the ground — called hydraulic fracturing, or hydrofracking — can require over a million gallons of water per well, and some of that water must be disposed of because it becomes contaminated by the process. If shale gas wells fade faster than expected, energy companies will have to drill more wells or hydrofrack them more often, resulting in more toxic waste.

The e-mails were obtained through open-records requests or provided to The New York Times by industry consultants and analysts who say they believe that the public perception of shale gas does not match reality; names and identifying information were redacted to protect these people, who were not authorized to communicate publicly. In the e-mails, some people within the industry voice grave concerns.

“And now these corporate giants are having an Enron moment,” a retired geologist from a major oil and gas company wrote in a February e-mail about other companies invested in shale gas. “They want to bend light to hide the truth.”

Others within the industry remain optimistic. They argue that shale gas economics will improve as the price of gas rises, technology evolves and demand for gas grows with help from increased federal subsidies being considered by Congress. “Shale gas supply is only going to increase,” Steven C. Dixon, executive vice president of Chesapeake Energy, said at an energy industry conference in April in response to skepticism about well performance.

Studying the Data

“I think we have a big problem.”

Deborah Rogers, a member of the advisory committee of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, recalled saying that in a May 2010 telephone call to a senior economist at the Reserve, Mine K. Yucel. “We need to take a close look at this right away,” she added.

A former stockbroker with Merrill Lynch, Ms. Rogers said she started studying well data from shale companies in October 2009 after attending a speech by the chief executive of Chesapeake, Aubrey K. McClendon. The math was not adding up, Ms. Rogers said. Her research showed that wells were petering out faster than expected.

Saturday, June 25, 2011

Economic growth still weak


The U.S. economy was a little stronger than originally believed but still struggling in the first three months of the year, according to the government's final reading on the first quarter.

Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the nation's economic activity, grew at an annual rate of 1.9% in the quarter, the Commerce Department reported Friday.

That's up from the previous estimate of 1.8%. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast no change from the prior reading.

But growth of 1.9% is still disappointingly weak, and there is widespread concern that the economy has slowed even more since the end of March. Hiring ground to a near halt in May and consumer spending and manufacturing slowed.

New economic stimulus: lower oil prices

Economic growth of 3% or better is generally considered necessary to spur the level of hiring by employers needed to make a big dent in the unemployment rate. The U.S. economy typically grows at a 3.6% rate during an economic expansion.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve significantly cut its economic growth forecasts, and raised its unemployment and inflation estimates for the rest of this year as well as for 2012. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said he was frustrated by the fact that declines in unemployment will be slow and painful.

Another drag on growth in the first half of the year was a jump in the price of food and energy, which sapped consumers' ability to spend more on other goods.

Since the GDP reading is adjusted for inflation, higher prices means the economy has to grow faster just to keep pace with inflation.

Many economists have been cutting their forecasts for growth in the second quarter and the rest of 2011.

A CNNMoney survey earlier this month found that top economists are forecasting growth of just 2.3% in the second quarter, which is down from estimates of 3% only a month earlier.

Economists also see a greater risk of another recession, although they still believe that's a long-shot.

"Recent data suggests that the economy has slowed further since the first quarter, and some leading indicators are pointing to softness in the latter half of the year as well," said Jim Baird, chief investment strategist for Plante Moran Financial Advisors.

Bernanke said Wednesday he believed that some of the current weakness in the economy is due to temporary factors, such as the spike in oil prices following political turmoil in the Middle East and supply chain disruptions caused by the Japanese earthquake.

But he admitted he couldn't say how much of the weakness is due to those temporary factors and how much are more serious, longer-lasting issues such as consumers still struggling with too much debt and continued weakness in housing.

Economists said Friday's report leaves that key question still unanswered.

"We are not yet prepared to write-off a solid second half economic performance, particularly if the labor market regains momentum next quarter," wrote Carl Riccadonna, senior U.S. economist for Deutsche Bank.

"In the near term, it will be critical to determine if economic output in general and factory output in particular are stabilizing as the supply disruptions ease, and also if households and small businesses respond swiftly to lower gas prices."

John Silvia, chief economist with Wells Fargo Securities, also said he's still hopeful that the economy could rebound in the second half of the year.

But with growth so weak, he's worried that the economy would be vulnerable to any other shocks that might occur, such as a default of Greek sovereign debt, a new oil price spike due to more political turmoil in the Middle East or a U.S. government shutdown due to the debate over raising the debt ceiling.

"You can't get a shock to the system and walk away from that," he said.

A rebound is a best case scenario, Silvia added. But it's been a while since the economy enjoyed a best case scenario

Thursday, June 23, 2011

Business Group Slams Obama Over Oil Release

Washington's most powerful business lobby panned the Obama administration's decision to tap the nation's strategic oil reserve Thursday, calling the move "ill-advised."

"Our reserve is intended to address true emergencies, not politically inconvenient high prices," Karen Harbert, CEO of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce Energy Institute, said in a statement.
The U.S. Department of Energy said it would release 30 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to alleviate Libyan supply disruptions. Other nations will contribute an additional 30 million barrels.


The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is the voice of big business in Washington's hallways of power, and the group hasn't always been on friendly terms with the administration.

Energy policy has been a particularly sticky point. The Chamber favors an increase in domestic energy production, including off-shore drilling, and has asked the Obama administration to expedite drilling permits and leases.

Harbert called tapping the reserve "dabbling around the edges" of energy policy, and said the move was "not the signal the markets need."

"Unrest in the Middle East is likely to continue for quite some time, so a temporary increase in supply is not a substitute for a long-term fix," she said.

Asked during a conference call with reporters about the timing and political implications of the decision to tap the reserve, senior White House officials demurred, allowing only that the move is a response to an oil supply shortage.

"We're not making predictions about market prices, which go up and down .... The prices will be what they are," said a senior administration official who refused to be identified.

The administration has long maintained it was willing to tap the 727 million barrel strategic reserve if specific conditions were met, and officials said they had been working for months with International Energy Agency member nations on the issue.

Obama to business: Let's work together

Officials on Thursday pointed to the drawn out nature of the Libyan disruption as the driving force behind tapping the reserve. The IEA estimated that the unrest in Libya removed 132 million barrels of light, sweet crude oil from the market by the end of May.

But the total amount that will be released to ease supply troubles -- 60 million barrels -- is less than one day's worldwide oil consumption.

In March, Obama said his administration was not tapping the reserve because there was no supply shock and other countries would fill the production gap.

"Right now, what we're seeing is not a shortage of supply," Obama said, before adding that, "even if Libyan oil production was suspended for a significant period of time because of the unrest there, we'd be able to fill that gap."

Many analysts were expecting OPEC to increase production earlier this month in response to the Libyan shortfall, but a decision to do so could not be reached.

Afghanistan-France follows US in troop withdrawal

President Obama: "America, it is time to focus on nation-building at home"

French President Nicolas Sarkozy has announced the phased withdrawal of its 4,000 soldiers serving in Afghanistan.

A statement said the French would follow the timetable of US withdrawals announced by President Barack Obama.

Mr Obama said 10,000 US troops would pull out this year, with another 23,000 leaving by the end of September 2012.

Afghan President Hamid Karzai welcomed the move, but the Taliban dismissed it as "symbolic" and vowed to continue fighting until all foreign forces left.

At least 68,000 US troops will remain in the country after the 33,000 have been withdrawn, but they are scheduled to leave by 2013, provided that Afghan forces are ready to take over security.

However the US reductions just announced are larger and faster than military commanders had advised.

They told the president that the recent security gains were fragile and reversible, and had urged him to keep troop numbers high until 2013.

Correspondents say the enormous cost of the deployment - currently more than $2bn (£1.25bn) a week - has attracted criticism from Congressional leaders, while the public are weary of a war that seems to have no end and has left at least 1,500 personnel dead and 12,000 wounded.

However the US reductions just announced are larger and faster than military commanders had advised.

They told the president that the recent security gains were fragile and reversible, and had urged him to keep troop numbers high until 2013.

Correspondents say the enormous cost of the deployment - currently more than $2bn (£1.25bn) a week - has attracted criticism from Congressional leaders, while the public are weary of a war that seems to have no end and has left at least 1,500 personnel dead and 12,000 wounded.

There have also been changes on the ground, notably the killing in May of al-Qaeda leader Osama Bin Laden by US forces in Pakistan.

Mission change
Mr Sarkozy's announcement came shortly after Mr Obama's, and followed a telephone discussion between the two leaders on Wednesday, said the Elysee Palace - the presidential office - in a statement.

The withdrawal of the approximately 4,000 serving French troops would be progressive and would take place "in a proportional manner and in a timeframe similar to the pullback of the American reinforcements", it said, beginning in the coming months.

The French president "stressed that France shared the American analysis and objectives and that it was happy with President Obama's decision".

Mr Obama's announcement, after a month-long strategy review, outlined the exit of the forces he sent to the country at the end of 2009 as part of a "surge".

In his speech, he said he had set clear objectives for the surge in December 2009 - to refocus on al-Qaeda, to reverse the Taliban's momentum, and train Afghan security forces to defend their own country.

His administration also stated the commitment would not be open-ended and that the withdrawal would begin in July 2011, he added.

"After this initial reduction our troops will continue coming home at a steady pace as Afghan security forces move into the lead. Our mission will change from combat to support."

The BBC's Paul Adams in Washington says the speech was all about reassuring the American public that the "tide of war" was receding.

Six thousand Americans have died in Iraq and Afghanistan and $1 trillion has been spent.

The initial withdrawal is expected to happen in two phases, with 5,000 troops coming home in coming months and another 5,000 by the end of the year.

The remainder of the surge reinforcements - 20,000 combat troops and an 3,000 deployed to support the operation - will be out by the end of September 2012, in time for the US presidential election.

Our correspondent says this is a quicker pace than most analysts predicted, and suggests the president does not feel he needs to leave the bulk of the surge force in place for another fighting season.

The second largest contributor to the international force in Afghanistan is the UK, which has more than 10,000 soldiers including special forces.

It has pledged to pull back forces by 2015 - and earlier if conditions allow.

US administration officials told the New York Times that the US military commander in Afghanistan, Gen David Petraeus, had not endorsed Mr Obama's decision. He recommended limiting initial withdrawals and leaving in place as many combat forces for as long as possible, they said.

Outgoing Defence Secretary Robert Gates and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton reluctantly accepted the reductions, the officials added.

Serious doubts remain about whether Afghan forces will be up to the task.

But President Karzai welcomed Mr Obama's announcement as "a good step for their benefit and the people of Afghanistan".

"I want the people of Afghanistan to be safe in their country with their own capable means," Mr Karzai said.

Security fears
There was a more ambivalent response from senior Afghan security officials who spoke to the BBC.

They stressed that neither the army nor police were yet capable of handling security alone, citing problems of enemy infiltration, drug addiction, and high desertion rates.

An Afghan official with the country's National Security Council said he hoped the withdrawal would take place progressively, and not in one fell swoop.

We look for a long-term commitment from the United States and the international community, one that will not allow Afghanistan to fall back to the pre-civil war and Taliban days," the official, who did not want to be named, told the BBC.

"We want to remind everyone, history shows that if you turn your [back] on Afghanistan, it will have negative consequences for you."

But a farmer in a volatile district in the north-eastern province of Kundoz told the BBC: "As far as I am concerned, the American forces didn't make a difference to me and my village. So if they leave it won't affect me.

"They supported militias, commanders who kill, rape and loot here. They are hated for that at my village.''