Gang Of SIX Plan Offers Hope

With just two weeks left until the federal government runs out of money to pay all of its bills, President Barack Obama seized on the "Gang of Six" plan as a "very significant step" and urged congressional leaders to start discussing it.

"My hope ... is that they tomorrow are prepared to start talking turkey and actually getting down to the hard business of crafting a plan that can move this forward in time for the August 2nd deadline," Obama said.

The U.S. government will default on its obligations by that date if Congress does not allow the Treasury to sell more debt. That could force the U.S. economy back into recession and wreak havoc on global financial markets.

White House talks on a comprehensive deficit reduction deal have stalled over tax increases, which Republicans oppose. Obama, a Democrat, said he hoped the "Gang of Six" proposal -- which would require each party to ease back from entrenched positions -- could help form the basis of an agreement.

A broad deficit reduction package would clear the way for Congress to approve an increase in the $14.3 trillion federal debt ceiling. A backup plan by Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell has gained momentum as a way to raise the ceiling and may end up incorporating parts of the "Gang of Six" proposal.

Senate Budget Committee Chairman Kent Conrad, one of the six Democratic and Republican senators who have been working since December on a deficit reduction plan, said the proposed $3.75 trillion in savings over 10 years contains $1.2 trillion in new revenues.

'11TH HOUR'

Obama's decision to speak to reporters about the "Gang of Six" plan even before he had fully read it showed the sense of crisis that is enveloping Washington as the clock ticks toward the August deadline.

"The problem we have now is we're in the 11th hour and we don't have a lot more time left," the president said.

The stalemate on debt talks has shaken global markets and credit rating agencies have warned they might downgrade the U.S. top-notch AAA rating if lawmakers do not agree on a broad-based deficit reduction plan.

A $3.75 trillion budget cut plan would exceed market expectations, said RBS Securities Treasury strategist John Briggs in Stamford, Connecticut.

News of the "Gang of Six" plan sent prices of 30-year U.S. bonds sharply higher and helped push U.S. stocks to their best day since March.

The plan quickly won support from many senators, including some conservative Republicans, and was rapidly gaining traction despite the fact it includes tax increases. Republican Senator Roger Wicker said it could pass the 100-seat Senate with a healthy majority of 60 or 70 votes.

But some aides urged caution, saying even if the plan proves popular in the Senate, there may not be time to craft it into detailed legislative language and then have it assessed by the Congressional Budget Office -- a necessary step -- before August 2.

Speaker of the House of Representatives John Boehner, the top Republican in Congress, has some concerns with the "Gang of Six" proposal, his spokesman Michael Steel said, adding the plan falls short in "some important areas."

BACKUP PLAN STILL BEING CONSIDERED

The "Gang of Six" plan came as White House and congressional negotiators worked on the premise that the only viable political solution to avoid default might be the backup plan proposed by McConnell.

His plan would hand Obama the authority -- and the blame -- for raising the $14.3 trillion debt ceiling. Democratic Senate Leader Harry Reid has proposed changes to make it attractive to Democrats, including up to $1.5 trillion in spending cuts.

"If there ... we can improve upon the legislation that we are doing, I am happy to take elements of the Gang of Six and work with them to get that done," Reid said.

Reid said he would like to begin consideration of the backup plan as soon as possible. Aides said that likely would not be until Saturday due to procedural hurdles.

The No. 2 Republican in the Senate, Jon Kyl, said he expects the McConnell plan to be approved in the Senate.

Obama said the backup plan was an important fallback in case lawmakers cannot agree on a broad deficit reduction plan.

Moody's Investors Service analyst Steven Hess said the McConnell/Reid plan would avoid any immediate downgrade of the coveted AAA rating.

But he said the plan did not offer a big enough deficit reduction and could result in a negative outlook on the rating, a sign of a possible downgrade in 12 to 18 months.

In the Republican-controlled House, a vote was expected on Tuesday on a deficit-reduction plan that would drastically cut and cap spending and require an amendment to the Constitution requiring a balanced budget. Obama said he would veto it.

The vote is largely symbolic as the measure is unlikely to pass the Democratic-controlled Senate. But it gives Republicans a chance to argue the need for deep spending cuts.

That could give Boehner, loathe to see Republicans blamed for a debt default, political cover to pursue a deal including less dramatic spending cuts than his party has so far sought.

U.S. Warned of Possible Downgrade

U.S. lawmakers got another stern warning from a leading credit rating agency on Thursday that there is now a very real possibility that the country's top-notch credit rating could be downgraded in the next three months.

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Standard & Poors said in a statement it was placing the United States' sovereign rating on "CreditWatch with negative implications."

"[O]wing to the dynamics of the political debate on the debt ceiling, there is at least a one-in-two likelihood that we could lower the long-term rating on the U.S. within the next 90 days," the agency said in a statement.

The action on Thursday follows a move in April when S&P changed its outlook on the U.S. AAA rating to "negative" because at the time it couldn't see how lawmakers would create a path to real debt reduction.

Bernanke: Debt ceiling breach 'calamitous'

Since then "the political debate about the U.S.' fiscal stance and the related issue of the U.S. government debt ceiling has, in our view, only become more entangled," the agency said.

"[W]e believe there is an increasing risk of a substantial policy stalemate enduring beyond any near-term agreement to raise the debt ceiling," S&P noted.

Indeed, other warnings from ratings agencies Moody's and Fitch in the interim spurred more rhetoric than action from politicians. Seven weeks' worth of talks between the parties led by Vice President Joe Biden broke down in June after House Majority Leader Eric Cantor left the negotiations.

And regular meetings at the White House between President Obama and Capitol Hill brass over the past two weeks have showed no signs of real progress. Obama will hold a press conference Friday to offer an update on the negotiations.

A downgrade of U.S. credit would mean interest rates on U.S. bonds would go up. And it could have ramifications across global markets because U.S. bonds are considered the world's safe haven investment.

The Treasury issued an immediate response to the news.

"Today's action by S&P restates what the Obama Administration has said for some time: That Congress must act expeditiously to avoid defaulting on the country's obligations and to enact a credible deficit reduction plan that commands bipartisan support," Treasury official Jeffrey Goldstein said. (Read: Republican stance on taxes a bust with public)

A downgrade could come for one of three reasons, S&P explained:

-- If Congress and the administration fail to come up with a "credible solution" to U.S. debt and show no signs of agreeing on one in the foreseeable future.

-- If the United States misses any scheduled debt service payments, in which case S&P would issue a "selective default" meaning a default has occurred on some bonds but not others.

-- If S&P concludes that the debt ceiling debate so bogs down that it calls into question policymakers' "willingness and ability to timely honor the U.S.' scheduled debt obligations."

Treasury started sending letters to Congress back in January urging them to raise the $14.3 trillion debt ceiling -- which is the U.S. legal borrowing limit

The Treasury takes in, on average, about $125 billion less than it has to pay out on a monthly basis. To make up the difference it issues U.S. bonds, and because of the country's sterling rating, it is able to do so at very low rates.

If Congress doesn't raise the debt ceiling by Aug. 2, the Treasury will no longer be able to pay all of the country's bills in full and on time without interruption

Who would follow Geithner?

Timothy Geithner said Thursday that he plans to stay on as Treasury Secretary for the foreseeable future. But that hasn't stopped speculation about who might take his place later this year.

Sources told CNN and other news outlets Thursday that Geithner is considering leaving the Obama administration later this year, once negotiations on raising the government's debt ceiling and cutting the budget deficit are complete.

Geithner's family is moving back to the New York suburbs where they lived before he took office so his son can finish high school there. And as the head of Treasury through the worst financial crisis in a generation, and the last key member of President Obama's original economic team still on the job, a desire to leave wouldn't be a shock.

Geithner tried to tamp down the reports of his imminent departure when speaking in Chicago Thursday by saying he wasn't planning on leaving anytime soon.

Still, economists and Washington experts were already talking about who might take over the high-profile job.

Near the top of the list is current White House Chief of Staff Bill Daley, a close Obama confidant and someone who was brought in at least partly because of his good relationship with the business community.

Before taking the job in the administration earlier this year, Daley had been an executive at JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500). He also served as Secretary of Commerce in the second term of the Clinton Administration.

Also at the top of many lists is Erskine Bowles, the Democratic co-chairman of the president's bipartisan commission on cutting the budget deficit. Bowles, who had served as White House Chief of Staff in the Clinton administration, would be an relatively easy pick to get confirmed given the budget cutting emphasis in Congress today, according some experts.

But when contacted Friday, Bowles, 65, appeared to take himself out of running for the job, saying that he is not interested in any full-time job at this point in his career.

"I am looking forward to being useful in part-time endeavors," he said.

Investment banker Roger Altman is another name that has been mentioned, but his name has surfaced for previous openings on the Obama economic team without ever getting tapped for a position.

And White House Budget Director Jacob Lew, who has been central to negotiations on the debt ceiling and deficit reduction, is another name suggested by experts.

Jamie Dimon, chairman and CEO of JPMorgan Chase, who is often described as "Obama's favorite banker" is another prominent name mentioned. A spokesman for the nation's second largest bank holding company had no comment on whether his boss would be interested in the job.

Greg Valliere, chief political strategist, Potomac Research Group, said he doesn't think it'll be a good idea for Obama to pick someone from Wall Street, given the government help banking giants like JPMorgan -- along with rivals likeCitigroup (C, Fortune 500) and Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) -- received during the crisis three years ago.

"I just think that Wall Street is not the way they would go. It could be an albatross for this administration," said Valliere. "And having him berating [Federal Reserve Chairman Ben] Bernanke in public three weeks ago certainly didn't help his case."

Valliere said that he thinks Obama should try to go with a high-profile Treasury Secretary outside of banking and Washington -- someone like Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA, Fortune 500) Chairman Warren Buffett, an earlier supporter of Obama four years ago, or New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg.

"I think he should do something bold and swing for the fences. I think Mike Bloomberg would be an electrifying pick," he said. "The only problem is that he could stray from the reservation on the message. But he's an entrepreneur who knows about creating jobs."

Bloomberg has denied interest in an administration post in the past, and has said he intends to complete his term as mayor which runs through 2013. A spokesman in the mayor's press office declined to comment Friday.

But the political reality is that it might be impossible to get any replacement for Geithner confirmed by the Senate in the year before a presidential election, said Jaret Seiberg, a research analyst at MF Global Inc.'s Washington Research Group.

Seiberg pointed out that 44 Republican senators have vowed not to confirm any nominee to head the new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau because they want the new agency's powers substantially trimmed. The same political battle could lead that group to block a Treasury nominee as well, he said. Even Alexander Hamilton would have trouble getting confirmed today, he said.

"The problem is there is no ideal candidate out there," said Seiberg. "I think it's a Herculean task to get anyone through the Senate right now. That's why at the end of the day, we're likely to have Geithner stay in place."

Valliere said if confirmation becomes the major hurdle to a new Treasury chief, he could see Secretary of State Hillary Clinton moving over to Treasury, with Sen. John Kerry taking her spot at State. Past and current senators have an easier time winning confirmation than do outsiders, he said. And he said that the Treasury job has become a diplomatic job as much as a finance job in the current interconnected global economy

New unemployment claims barely improve

The number of Americans filing for first-time unemployment benefits slipped only slightly last week, falling short of economists' expectations for a bigger drop.

There were 428,000 initial jobless claims filed in the week ended June 25 -- 1,000 fewer than the week before, the Labor Department said.

It marked the 12th straight week initial claims have stayed above the 400,000 mark -- and was worse than the 420,000 claims economists surveyed by Briefing.com had expected.

"Another week, another disappointing U.S. initial claims report," Jennifer Lee, senior economist with BMO Capital Markets said in a note to investors.

Lee pointed out that claims have been hovering at a level that offers little confidence that the job market's recovery picked up substantially in June. Slower auto manufacturing following Japan's earthquake could still be taking its toll, she said, and will hopefully let up later this summer.

The four-week moving average of initial claims, calculated to smooth out volatility, increased to 426,750, up 500 claims from the week before.

Fewer jobs for unemployed workers

Continuing claims -- which include people filing for the second week of benefits or more -- fell to 3,702,000 in the week ended June 18 -- also falling short of economists' forecasts for 3,700,000 ongoing claims.

California, New Jersey and Florida saw claims rise the most in the week ending June 18, the most recent data available.

Meanwhile, Ohio saw the biggest drop in unemployment claims, with 2,769 fewer people filing claims in that state. Illinois and New York followed, each with drops of 2,000 or more.

The Labor Department will release its closely watched monthly jobs report next Friday, detailing how many jobs the U.S. economy created in June.

May's report showed the economy added a disappointing 54,000 jobs that month -- far too low to bring down the unemployment rate.

Stocks end the first half with a bang

Stocks ended the first half of the year solidly higher Thursday, as investors put a turbulent six months behind them.

All three major indexes rallied for the fourth day in a row, helped by a strong economic report on business activity in the Midwest and the latest positive developments out of Greece.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) added 153 points, or 1.3%, led by Intel (INTC, Fortune 500), Caterpillar (CAT, Fortune 500) and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, Fortune 500). Shares of all three companies rose about 3%.

The S&P 500 (SPX) rose 13 points, or 1%, and the Nasdaq composite (COMP) gained 33 points, or 1.2%. First Solar (FSLR) and eBay (EBAY, Fortune 500) were among the best performing stocks on both indexes.

All three major indexes reached the mid-year mark on a high note. The Dow is up more than 7% while the S&P and Nasdaq are up 5%.

Meanwhile, Wall Street's most widely cited measure of volatility and fear, the VIX (VIX), has dropped nearly 7% during the first six months of the year.

Interactive: A stormy year for stocks

The second quarter has been difficult, however. Stocks struggled over the past two months amid jitters about Europe's sovereign debt problems and an economic slowdown in the United States.

The Dow ended the quarter up 0.8%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished about 0.3% lower. That quarterly performance was the worst in a year for all three indexes.

Economy: The Chicago purchasing managers index, which measures business activity in the Midwest, jumped to 61.1 in June from 56.6 the prior month. Economists were expecting the measure to slip to 54.

"Based on the series of poor economic reports we've had the last several weeks, expectations were low, so this was a nice surprise," said Joseph Saluzzi, co-head of equity trading at Themis Trading.

Don't fear the commodities bear

Strong regional data is especially welcome news ahead of the national Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index due Friday, but it's only one data point, Saluzzi cautioned.

Adding to the welcome news, Greece voted in favor of implementing the austerity measures approved on Wednesday. The measures aim to keep the debt-ridden country from defaulting.

But as anti-government protests grow worse, some investors worry that Greece's problems are far from over.

There's still a lot to sort out with Greece and we're not out of the woods yet," Saluzzi said. "There are a lot of major global economic concerns, and I think markets will be choppy for the rest of the summer."

The Labor Department reported that weekly jobless claims edged down slightly in the latest week, but fell short of economists' expectations for a bigger drop.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar fell against the euro, the British pound and the Japanese yen.

Oil for August delivery rose 65 cents to settle at $95.42 a barrel.

Gold futures for August delivery slipped $7.60 to settle at $1,502.80 an ounce.

10-year yield at one-month high

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury edged down, pushing the yield up to 3.16% from 3.11% late Wednesday.

Companies: Shares of eBay (EBAY, Fortune 500), which owns PayPal, jumped more than 4% a day after the Federal Reserve imposed caps on debit card swipe fees that weren't as high as expected.

Shares of the First Solar (FSLR) gained more than 2%, after the company won $4.5 billion in loan guarantees from the Department of Energy.

World markets: European stocks ended higher. Britain's FTSE 100 gained 1.5%, the DAX in Germany added 1.1% and France's CAC 40 rose 1.5%.

Asian markets also ended the session higher. The Shanghai Composite jumped 1.2%, the Hang Seng in Hong Kong gained 1.5% and Japan's Nikkei rose 0.2%

Congress moves forward on free trade deals

The Senate will officially take up three trade deals and a scaled-back version of a jobs retraining program for laid-off workers on Thursday.

Senate negotiators will have to start pounding out the details of the trade deals, as well as

funding for the jobs retraining program -- whose funding ran dry in February.

"This was truly a bipartisan negotiation on all sides ... we think this is a strong package that reflected the different priorities," said one senior administration official on a call with reporters Tuesday.

But final passage on all the measures is not a done deal. Republican support depends on how closely the trade deals and jobs retraining program are linked together.

Republicans want to vote on the trade pacts, and have agreed to consider the new compromise that would extend the jobs retraining program, according to congressional aides. But they refuse to have the issues stuck together on the same bill, in a way that would prevent them from making changes to the jobs retraining program.

"I would strongly urge the Administration to re-think this action, and urge them to send up all three pending trade agreements without delay -- and without extraneous poison pills included," said Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell in a statement Tuesday.

If Congress were to pass the trade pacts without the jobs retraining program, President Obama would face a tough choice as he had previously said he couldn't have one without the other.

At issue is the Trade Adjustment Assistance program, which got a big funding boost with the 2009 economic Recovery Act.

The program gives unemployed workers financial help and job training when employers move jobs overseas. White House officials had previously said that more than 435,000 workers would be eligible for the program if it were reinstated. But Republicans have said they are concerned about funding such stimulus programs, because of the big deficits the nation faces.

A White House official outlined a compromise made on the program, saying it would be scaled back. He added that it wouldn't add to the deficit, thanks to cuts in unemployment insurance; and due to a new proposal that would penalize tax preparers who have "bad records," claiming tax credits for those who don't qualify.

But the White House couldn't give a final tab on Tuesday for the scaled back Trade Adjustment Assistance program.

An additional roadblock is that even though House Ways and Means Chairman Rep. David Camp was involved in the compromise, it's unclear whether even a scaled-back version could pass the GOP-controlled House

"We're pleased the President may finally send us the three job-creating trade agreements we've requested, but we have long said that TAA -- even this scaled-back version -- should be dealt with separately from the trade agreements," said Brendan Buck, spokesman for House Speaker John Boehner.

The one thing many congressional Republicans and Democrats can agree on is wanting to pass the trade deals to help boost the U.S. economy, particularly since some say the treaties could add as many as 250,000 jobs.

Despite Obama's effort to tie the trade pacts to something the unions want, the AFL-CIO and other labor groups continue to oppose the treaties -- which they say don't do enough to protect workers' rights.

But business groups from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce to the Business Roundtable applauded the move forward.

"With our economic recovery stalling, the time is now for Congress to act on these deals," said Thomas J. Donohue, president and CEO of the U.S. Chamber. "We simply cannot afford to put American jobs at risk any longer."

Fed set to buy $300B more Treasuries

QE2 is just about done. But the Federal Reserve will still be buying massive amounts of long-term Treasuries.

In fact, the Fed's purchases over the next year will likely be at least $300 billion. That's half the size of QE2 -- even if QE3 never takes place.

While the Fed's efforts to pump about $600 billion of new cash into the economy over the last eight months comes to an end this week, the program, known as quantitative easing or QE2 for short, was not the only way the central bank was an active buyer of Treasuries.

Since last August, the Fed purchased $250 billion in long-term Treasuries in addition to the QE2 purchases. That's because it was reinvesting the principal from other securities that matured.

Assuming the Fed keeps reinvesting, as it said it would earlier this month, it will continue to be a very big buyer of bonds in the months to come.

"We still see the Fed being a major buyer of Treasuries, and giving the market some support," said Kim Rupert, managing director of fixed income for Action Economics.

But those purchases may not push yields, which move in the opposite direction of their price, lower for that much longer.

Rupert said she expects bond yields to rise even with the Fed's continued purchases. She said some investors who bought Treasuries recently in a flight to quality will unwind those positions. If the economic outlook improves later in the year, that could also lift interest rates.

The additional Fed purchases will have an impact though. Rupert said it should "slow the updraft in yields in a measurable way."

The Fed still has more than $1 trillion in mortgage-backed securities, debt issued by government-sponsored firms Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and other long-term bonds on its balance sheet.

While not all of this debt is set to mature in the next few months, the Fed still has a lot at its disposal to roll over into new bond purchases.

Of course the Fed could decide to stop reinvesting the principal of maturing securities. But that could almost have the same effect of actually raising interest rates. It would take significant amounts of cash out of the economy.

Even though some Fed policymakers are worried about the impact the bond buying has had on the dollar and inflation, the Fed does not seem ready to remove all its stimulus just yet. After all, the central bank did just issue a gloomier forecast for growth and unemployment through the end of 2012.

"Most of us can agree the economy is not going gangbusters and it's not a self-sustaining recovery yet," said David Coard, director of fixed income sales and trading for The Williams Capital Group. "For the foreseeable future, the Fed will have to maintain an accommodative stance. It's the only game in town."

France's Lagarde for IMF post

U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner said Tuesday that he supports French finance minister Christine Lagarde as head of the International Monetary Fund.

"Minister Lagarde's exceptional talent and broad experience will provide invaluable leadership for this indispensable institution at a critical time for the global economy," Geithner said in a statement.

The global financial organization is expected to vote on a new managing director as early as Tuesday to replace Dominique Strauss-Kahn, who was arrested in New York last month on sexual assault charges.

The vote on whom to appoint to the influential post comes at a crucial time for the IMF, which has been working closely with the European Union and the European Central Bank to provide financial support for Greece and other troubled European economies.

The only other contender is Mexican Central Bank chief Agustin Carstens, who has been supported by Australia, Canada and Mexico.

Geithner commended Carstens "on his strong and very credible candidacy."

Lagarde, who would be the first woman to run the IMF, is also backed by the United Kingdom, Germany and most European powers. Some Asian and African nations have also signaled support for her candidacy.

The fund's 24-member executive board seeks to agree on a new managing director by consensus.

The IMF, which is made up of 187 member countries, has traditionally been led by a Western European official.

For Greece, the real challenge is still ahead

Some developing nations had pushed to break that tradition, arguing that the IMF should consider candidates from rising economic powers in Asia and South America.

In a statement to the IMF's executive board released last week, Lagarde said the fund "belongs to no one but its 187 member states."

"I am not here to represent the interest of any given region of the world, but rather the entire membership," she continued.

The fund was established in 1947 to help rebuild the international monetary system after World War II. In addition to monetary cooperation and exchange rate stability, the IMF works to facilitate international trade and promote economic growth around the world.

The IMF has been led by John Lipsky, a veteran deputy managing director, since May 19.

Strauss-Khan pleaded not guilty earlier this month to seven charges involving a May 14 incident in which a housekeeping employee at New York's Sofitel hotel accused him of sexual assault.

Once considered a top candidate in France's next presidential race, Strauss-Khan officially resigned from the IMF on May 19. He is being held under house arrest in a Manhattan apartment on $6 million in bail money.