New unemployment claims barely improve

The number of Americans filing for first-time unemployment benefits slipped only slightly last week, falling short of economists' expectations for a bigger drop.

There were 428,000 initial jobless claims filed in the week ended June 25 -- 1,000 fewer than the week before, the Labor Department said.

It marked the 12th straight week initial claims have stayed above the 400,000 mark -- and was worse than the 420,000 claims economists surveyed by Briefing.com had expected.

"Another week, another disappointing U.S. initial claims report," Jennifer Lee, senior economist with BMO Capital Markets said in a note to investors.

Lee pointed out that claims have been hovering at a level that offers little confidence that the job market's recovery picked up substantially in June. Slower auto manufacturing following Japan's earthquake could still be taking its toll, she said, and will hopefully let up later this summer.

The four-week moving average of initial claims, calculated to smooth out volatility, increased to 426,750, up 500 claims from the week before.

Fewer jobs for unemployed workers

Continuing claims -- which include people filing for the second week of benefits or more -- fell to 3,702,000 in the week ended June 18 -- also falling short of economists' forecasts for 3,700,000 ongoing claims.

California, New Jersey and Florida saw claims rise the most in the week ending June 18, the most recent data available.

Meanwhile, Ohio saw the biggest drop in unemployment claims, with 2,769 fewer people filing claims in that state. Illinois and New York followed, each with drops of 2,000 or more.

The Labor Department will release its closely watched monthly jobs report next Friday, detailing how many jobs the U.S. economy created in June.

May's report showed the economy added a disappointing 54,000 jobs that month -- far too low to bring down the unemployment rate.

California Budger with Deep Cuts

California lawmakers approved a $86 billion budget late Tuesday that imposes deep spending cuts but does not extend tax hikes.

The budget is a disappointment for Governor Jerry Brown, a Democrat who spent months trying to convince Republican legislators to put an extension of personal income and sales tax increases before the voters.

Unable to do so, Brown and Democratic legislative leaders cobbled together a plan that calls for a total of $14.6 billion in cuts.

"Putting our state on a sound and sustainable fiscal footing still requires much work, but we have now taken a huge step forward," Brown said in a statement.

Much of the bloodletting was agreed to in March, but this week's deal would add at least $2.5 billion in additional reductions.

Overall the Department of Health and Human Services would be slashed by $5 billion, while the Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation would see a cut of $1 billion. The state's two university systems would each lose $650 million in funding.

The budget hinges on the state bringing in $4 billion in more in tax revenues in the coming year than was initially expected. The improving economy has pushed the state's tax collections billions of dollars above estimates in recent months. Brown expects the windfall to continue into fiscal 2012, which starts Friday.

If tax revenue comes in lower than expected, the budget also would impose an additional $2.6 billion in cuts to higher education, corrections and in-home support services for the elderly and disabled.

The proposal would slash billions in spending for children, the sick, and the elderly, said Senate President pro Tem Darrell Steinberg. And it would hurt the state's economy, he said.

"This budget is the most austere fiscal blueprint California has seen in a generation," Steinberg said.

Since the budget does not call for tax increases, it requires only a majority of the Democratic-led legislature to approve it. However, Governor Brown and his fellow Democrats said they plan to put a tax measure on the ballot in November 2012 through a voter initiative -- bypassing the requirement for Republican consent.

Though they fended off Brown's tax extensions, Republicans immediately attacked the proposal, saying California needs a budget that will revitalize the economy and create jobs.

"This latest budget is based on the hope that $4 billion in new revenues will miraculously materialize, but does absolutely nothing to change government as usual," said Senate Republican Leader Bob Dutton.

The proposal is a major shift for Brown, who has said for months that the state's $26 billion budget's gap should be addressed with a mix of spending cuts and tax extensions. He also was determined to fulfill his pledge to put the extension of personal income and sales taxes before the voters.

However, he could not convince four Republicans to join him so he could get the measure on the ballot. A budget containing a tax hike needs the support of two-thirds of lawmakers.

Republicans have refused to go along unless the budget also contained a spending cap, as well as pension and regulatory reform.

The latest proposal was put together less than two weeks after Brown vetoed a budget approved by the legislature, saying it was chock full of gimmicks and contained legally questionable maneuvers.

California lawmakers lose pay until they pass balanced budget

Lawmakers had raced to pass a spending plan by June 15 to meet a voter-imposed deadline that required the legislature to pass a balanced budget or forfeit their pay.

However, state controller John Chiang determined that the budget was actually unbalanced. So lawmakers, who earn $95,291 a year and $142 per diem for each day they are in session, have gone without pay since mid-month.

Fed set to buy $300B more Treasuries

QE2 is just about done. But the Federal Reserve will still be buying massive amounts of long-term Treasuries.

In fact, the Fed's purchases over the next year will likely be at least $300 billion. That's half the size of QE2 -- even if QE3 never takes place.

While the Fed's efforts to pump about $600 billion of new cash into the economy over the last eight months comes to an end this week, the program, known as quantitative easing or QE2 for short, was not the only way the central bank was an active buyer of Treasuries.

Since last August, the Fed purchased $250 billion in long-term Treasuries in addition to the QE2 purchases. That's because it was reinvesting the principal from other securities that matured.

Assuming the Fed keeps reinvesting, as it said it would earlier this month, it will continue to be a very big buyer of bonds in the months to come.

"We still see the Fed being a major buyer of Treasuries, and giving the market some support," said Kim Rupert, managing director of fixed income for Action Economics.

But those purchases may not push yields, which move in the opposite direction of their price, lower for that much longer.

Rupert said she expects bond yields to rise even with the Fed's continued purchases. She said some investors who bought Treasuries recently in a flight to quality will unwind those positions. If the economic outlook improves later in the year, that could also lift interest rates.

The additional Fed purchases will have an impact though. Rupert said it should "slow the updraft in yields in a measurable way."

The Fed still has more than $1 trillion in mortgage-backed securities, debt issued by government-sponsored firms Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and other long-term bonds on its balance sheet.

While not all of this debt is set to mature in the next few months, the Fed still has a lot at its disposal to roll over into new bond purchases.

Of course the Fed could decide to stop reinvesting the principal of maturing securities. But that could almost have the same effect of actually raising interest rates. It would take significant amounts of cash out of the economy.

Even though some Fed policymakers are worried about the impact the bond buying has had on the dollar and inflation, the Fed does not seem ready to remove all its stimulus just yet. After all, the central bank did just issue a gloomier forecast for growth and unemployment through the end of 2012.

"Most of us can agree the economy is not going gangbusters and it's not a self-sustaining recovery yet," said David Coard, director of fixed income sales and trading for The Williams Capital Group. "For the foreseeable future, the Fed will have to maintain an accommodative stance. It's the only game in town."

Debt ceiling: Just do it

Warnings from all three credit ratings agencies didn't do it. Seven weeks of talks among lawmakers didn't do it. Maybe President Obama's talks with Capitol Hill brass will do it.

But as of now, there's still no debt-reduction deal. And many lawmakers are still demanding one in exchange for their vote to increase the debt ceiling.

Here's an idea: Even if they can't come up with a deal by Aug. 2, lawmakers should raise the debt ceiling anyway. Then they should make a pot of coffee and go back to hammering out a debt-reduction plan.

Fiscal responsibility isn't a one-off proposition; it's an ongoing process.

If Congress fails to raise the debt ceiling by Aug. 2 -- the day when the Treasury Department estimates it will no longer be able to pay all the country's bills -- any number of damaging and utterly preventable scenarios could occur.

Deadbeat nation: For starters, the United States would look ridiculous. The debt ceiling needs to be raised because of obligations that Congresses past and present chose to incur.

Not raising the ceiling would signal to the world that Americans are willfully choosing not to pay their bills. The message won't be "We can't pay." It will be "We could pay, but we've decided not to. Sorry."

Market mayhem: To date, investors have been trading on the assumption -- the rock-solid belief, actually -- that there is just no way Congress would fail to raise the debt ceiling in time.

If Congress dashes those expectations, no one can know exactly how the markets will react. But most think markets will react, and not well.

Some bond experts expect that contrary to popular belief, Treasury rates won't rise but stocks may tank. In other words, there will be a move out of risk-based assets and a flight to safety in bonds.

Bond experts to Congress: Don't mess it up

So interest rates may stay low, but Americans' investments get whacked.

Or, Treasury yields could become volatile and start to climb as investors smell political instability in Washington. That would push the cost of U.S. debt higher.

Hopping mad republic: If Treasury is technically and legally able to prioritize the payment of interest to bond investors, the country may avoid the kind of default that would trigger rating downgrades.

A growing number of lawmakers say that it's OK not to raise the debt ceiling as long as Treasury continues to make payments to bondholders.

But that doesn't mean there wouldn't be seriously negative consequences.

"Someone -- perhaps millions of someones -- won't be paid on time. Contractors, federal workers, program beneficiaries, or state and local governments will suddenly find themselves short on their cash flow," former Congressional Budget Office Donald Marron wrote in a recent op-ed in the Christian Science Monitor.

That could hurt the economy, which is still trying to find its sea legs, and won't do much for the country's mood.

Damaged reputation: Even if bond investors continue to be paid, investors and credit rating agencies won't take it lightly when Treasury has to delay payments to others.

Such delayed payments -- and the public anger that would result -- could cause investors to worry that even if they're getting paid today, tomorrow may be another story. And they could trade on that concern, even if it's unfounded. That, in turn, could cause interest rates to rise.

Fitch Ratings Agency said it would put the country on "Ratings Watch Negative" in such a scenario.

"Extensive payment arrears to suppliers of goods and services to the government ... would damage perceptions of U.S. sovereign creditworthiness and signal growing financial distress," the agency said in a recent report.

The S&P already has already downgraded its credit outlook on the United States to "negative" from "stable." And Moody's is considering doing the same.

Downright default: This is the very worst and still least likely of outcomes, because most believe that there's no way the U.S. government would not pay its bondholders.

But if they don't raise the ceiling, lawmakers would raise the chance that those bondholders don't get paid over time.

Debt ceiling: What you need to know

That could theoretically happen if the Treasury a) is somehow not able to prioritize payments to bondholders; or b) has to pay out more to bondholders than it has coming in on any given day.

On some days Treasury brings in more money than it has to pay out. And on some days it doesn't. But on average, the United States comes up short by about $125 billion every month.

To cut that much spending or raise that much extra in tax revenue overnight would hobble the U.S. economy and very likely de-stabilize world markets.

A U.S. default would be catastrophic, influential bond investor Mohamed El-Erian said Sunday on CNN's "Fareed Zakaria GPS."

His advice to Congress? Raise the ceiling, even if you can't complete a debt-reduction deal in time.

"If ... you're going to kick the can down the road, kick the can rather than face something that could be catastrophic in terms of legal contracts being triggered," said El-Erian, CEO of PIMCO

Inflation in Emerging Market

Inflation in emerging markets could reach double digits, while economic growth this year will average 6 per cent, according to Franklin Templeton's veteran emerging markets investor Mark Mobius .

Economic growth and rising commodity and food prices are fuelling inflation in emerging economies, but Mobius said these countries have previously withstood inflation running into the thousands of per cent, such as in Brazil.

"I would be surprised that it goes into high teens, but it could go into the teens. I think most countries are going to try and keep it down," Mobius, who is executive chairman of Franklin Templeton's Emerging Markets Group , told Reuters on the sidelines of the Fund Forum conference in Monaco.

"What you have to focus on is (the) real interest rates environment, because if the inflation rate is above what people get in the banks, they will obviously have the tendency to move into equities," he said.

Mobius, who oversees about $54 billion in assets at U.S. asset manager Franklin Resources (BEN.N), said growth in Asia will be a little faster than in other emerging markets.

"GDP growth will be 5-6 per cent (on) average for emerging markets in general, in Asia I think it will be one (per centage) point more than that," he said.

Private investments in emerging markets will hit around $1 trillion in 2011 -- an estimate revised upward since January -- according to the Institute of International Finance .

Some analysts say inflows to these fast-growing economies, combined with existing inflationary pressure could lead to asset bubbles, posing what some experts called "monstrous" risks.

Stocks don't need (or want) more stimulus

The Federal Reserve is winding down its $600 billion bond buying stimulus that helped fuel an eight-month stock rally, and experts say stocks are ready to take back the reins.

They don't need or want any more stimulus, say strategists surveyed by CNNMoney.

Even though stocks have retreated about 7% since the start of May, most market strategists say the pullback is temporary, and are calling for the S&P 500 to rise more than 7% during the second half.

That means the S&P 500 would end 2011 with double-digit gains ... at a fresh 3-year high. All of that without any additional stimulus.

"The Fed should stop. They've done more than enough already," said Matt King, chief investment officer at Bell Investment Advisors. "Any further stimulus only increases the long-term risk of inflation, which we already view as high."

A stormy year for stocks

What's more, some went so far to say that the Fed's stimulus program, known as quantitative easing or QE2, was "a failure."

"It weakened the dollar and stuck the economy with higher food and energy prices," said Donald Selkin, chief market strategist at National Securities, adding that those factors are to blame for the recent pullback in consumer spending and slowdown in economic growth.

CNNMoney survey: Where the markets are headed

Rather than another round of monetary stimulus, experts say policymakers need to focus their goals on righting the nation's fiscal ship to keep the market and economy on track.

"The Fed should move to the sidelines until Congress acts to extend the debt ceiling and addresses a budget deficit package," said Marc Pado, chief investment strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald.

Without Fed intervention, Congress may also be more inclined to address tax policies that are keeping record amounts of corporate cash abroad, experts said.

If Congress were to enact some sort of repatriation tax holiday, it could bring some of that money back to the United States, which would spur business spending and lead to more job creation.

"The Fed needs to pass the baton to the next runner in this relay race and that is business spending," said Burt White, chief investment officer at LPL Financial. "It is time for businesses to spend and hire, which will move the baton later to the anchor runner, the consumer."

Experts See Action Packed Week For Bourses

After the last week's rally that saw key market index Sensex regaining 18,000 level, investors expect strong domestic trends to take the market further up, experts said.

"Stock market may witness some action with an added dose of volatility due to the F&O expiry. With July 1st falling on the last trading day, the markets will also closely watch data on auto and cement sales, besides economic statistics on trade and manufacturing," IIFL - India Private Clients Head of Research Amar Ambani said.

During the past week, the BSE key index Sensex went up by 370.15 points, or 2 per cent to end the week at 18,240.68. The Sensex surged by over 500 points on Friday on the back of sharp dip in global crude oil prices and firm overseas cues.

Analysts opined that global events will continue to have some bearing on local sentiment. Greece and the US economy will remain in focus and the Chinese manufacturing PMI data will also be on the investors' radar.

The government on Friday decided to increase diesel price by Rs 3 per litre, domestic LPG by Rs 50 per cylinder and kerosene by Rs 2 per litre, while slashing customs and excise duties on crude oil and products.

Market analysts said that government policy on fuel price hike will influence the market trend, and added that the hike in diesel and LPG prices will be well received by the markets.

"We expect the rally may continue after the fall in crude oil price and recovery in the global market. Many frontline and mid-cap stocks are trading at an attractive valuation with a few weeks left to first quarter FY12 quarterly result announcement.

"Improvement in monsoon is also an important factor that will influence the market trend," Motilal Oswal Securities Associate VP Sr Analyst -Technical-Equities Parag Doctor said.

Oil prices fell on Thursday after International Energy Agency decided to release 60 million barrels of crude, giving global economy relief from high energy costs.

The New York crude on Friday tumbled nearly 5 per cent to about USD 90 a barrel, while Brent Crude plunged USD 7 to about USD 107 a barrel.

Some experts were of the opinion that markets will open slight higher on Monday, but profit-booking can bring down some of the gains.

Shoplifting on the rise: A sign of recovery?

That latest sign of an economic recovery: shoplifting is back.

Typically, an increase in shoplifting is believed to be an indicator of tough economic times. But a recent study by the National Retail Federation, which found that retail theft by employees is on the rise, says the recent spike in stealing could very well mean the economy is on the upswing.

According to the National Retail Federation's security survey, inventory shrinkage -- which is the retail value of lost merchandise -- cost retailers more than $37 billion in 2010, up from $33.5 billion in 2009.

The losses were largely due to employee theft, the survey said, followed by shoplifting by customers, administrative error and vendor fraud. The survey polls roughly 140 retailers year after year.

"A lot of times shoplifting is an inside job," said Jim Angel, associate professor of finance at the McDonough School of Business at Georgetown University.

When the economy hit its lowest point, employees were primarily consumed with keeping their jobs, said Richard Hollinger, a criminology professor at the University of Florida and author of the security survey.

Workers were deterred from stealing simply because even minimum-wage jobs in retail were scarce. "They were so worried about their future, their families and paying the mortgage, they realized this is what is keeping their family afloat," Hollinger said.

Shoplifting rates fell significantly in 2007. But as the recovery takes hold, shoplifting rates are on the rise again.

As employees feel more secure in their positions, they may be more inclined to take some risks, Angel said.

At the same time, employers drastically reduced head counts during the recession, which left fewer employees on the floor with heavier workloads in the early stages of the recovery. As workers feel more disgruntled, theft becomes "very tempting," Hollinger said, "especially if they feel that the company can afford it and they're being paid minimum wage."

"When those inequities build up, rationalizing theft is fairly common," he said.

"Employee theft is something every retailer faces, and we are no different," said Tina Sellers, the vice president of Loss Prevention at video game retailer GameStop, a company that has been particularly vocal about the problem of shoplifting.

Why chronic comparing spells career poison

Inventory losses at retailers reached it's highest point in 1994 when the U.S. economy was growing at a very fast pace and has steadily declined since -- until the uptick last year, according to the National Retail Federation's data.

Other factors contributing to the decline in shoplifting in previous years have been improved security measures and the demise of CDs and DVDs, which once drove stealing to new heights.

Now that most music and movies are primarily downloaded, the resale market for those items has largely dried up, Hollinger said.