Showing posts with label USA Auto Industry. Show all posts
Showing posts with label USA Auto Industry. Show all posts

Friday, June 24, 2011

USA Economic growth still weak

The U.S. economy was a little stronger than originally believed but still struggling in the first three months of the year, according to the government's final reading on the first quarter.

Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of the nation's economic activity, grew at an annual rate of 1.9% in the quarter, the Commerce Department reported Friday.

That's up from the previous estimate of 1.8%. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had forecast no change from the prior reading.

But growth of 1.9% is still disappointingly weak, and there is widespread concern that the economy has slowed even more since the end of March. Hiring ground to a near halt in May and consumer spending and manufacturing slowed.


New economic stimulus: lower oil prices

Bernanke said Wednesday he believed that some of the current weakness in the economy is due to temporary factors, such as the spike in oil prices following political turmoil in the Middle East and supply chain disruptions caused by the Japanese earthquake.

But he admitted he couldn't say how much of the weakness is due to those temporary factors and how much are more serious, longer-lasting issues such as consumers still struggling with too much debt and continued weakness in housing.

Economists said Friday's report leaves that key question still unanswered.

"We are not yet prepared to write-off a solid second half economic performance, particularly if the labor market regains momentum next quarter," wrote Carl Riccadonna, senior U.S. economist for Deutsche Bank.

"In the near term, it will be critical to determine if economic output in general and factory output in particular are stabilizing as the supply disruptions ease, and also if households and small businesses respond swiftly to lower gas prices."

John Silvia, chief economist with Wells Fargo Securities, also said he's still hopeful that the economy could rebound in the second half of the year.

But with growth so weak, he's worried that the economy would be vulnerable to any other shocks that might occur, such as a default of Greek sovereign debt, a new oil price spike due to more political turmoil in the Middle East or a U.S. government shutdown due to the debate over raising the debt ceiling.

"You can't get a shock to the system and walk away from that," he said.

A rebound is a best case scenario, Silvia added. But it's been a while since the economy enjoyed a best case scenario. Economic growth of 3% or better is generally considered necessary to spur the level of hiring by employers needed to make a big dent in the unemployment rate. The U.S. economy typically grows at a 3.6% rate during an economic expansion.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve significantly cut its economic growth forecasts, and raised its unemployment and inflation estimates for the rest of this year as well as for 2012. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said he was frustrated by the fact that declines in unemployment will be slow and painful.

Another drag on growth in the first half of the year was a jump in the price of food and energy, which sapped consumers' ability to spend more on other goods.

Since the GDP reading is adjusted for inflation, higher prices means the economy has to grow faster just to keep pace with inflation.

Many economists have been cutting their forecasts for growth in the second quarter and the rest of 2011.

A CNNMoney survey earlier this month found that top economists are forecasting growth of just 2.3% in the second quarter, which is down from estimates of 3% only a month earlier.

Economists also see a greater risk of another recession, although they still believe that's a long-shot.

"Recent data suggests that the economy has slowed further since the first quarter, and some leading indicators are pointing to softness in the latter half of the year as well," said Jim Baird, chief investment strategist for Plante Moran Financial Advisors.

Tuesday, May 31, 2011

U.S. auto sales probably ran at the slowest pace of the year in May


According to the average estimate of 11 analysts that Bloomberg compiled, deliveries for light vehicles in May could have run at a 12.1 million seasonally adjusted annual rate. The vehicle sales in the United States were likely at their slowest pace of the year in May, a gap in demand before rebounding production in Japan and lower gas prices boosts the highest annual purchases since 2008. According to researcher Autodata Corp., the pace exceeded 13 million each for the last three months and was 12.6 million in January.

Honda Motor Co. and Toyota Motor Corp. are working hard for operations to get back to normal after the March 11 disaster in Japan created component supply shortages and idled factories, according to Autonews. The slowdown in May sales was due to the limited supply of fuel-efficient vehicles, like Toyota's Prius, that discouraged purchases and raised prices.

Alan Baum, the principal of industry consultant Baum & Associates shared that the consumers were informed about a temporary shortage of cars, and thus, many of them are just waiting. He forecasted that vehicle sales in the U.S. this year will reach 13 million. He added that May is a “reasonably poor month” but did not guarantee that it will transcend in the remaining months of the year.